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Found 127435 resources         Showing items 1 to 25 :   Page [1] 2 3 4 .... 5098 -

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   FEDS 2018-026: The Fed's Asymmetric Forecast Errors
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
16-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018026

Andrew C. Chang | I show that the probability that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System staff's forecasts (the "Greenbooks") overpredicted quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) growth depends on both the forecast horizon and also whethe....
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   FEDS 2018-027: The Regulatory and Monetary Policy Nexus in the Repo Market
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
17-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018027

Sriya Anbil and Zeynep Senyuz | We examine the interaction of regulatory reforms and changes in monetary policy in the U.S. repo market. Using a proprietary data set of repo transactions, we find that differences in re....
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   IFDP 2018-1226: Measuring Monetary Policy Spillovers between U.S. and German Bond Yields
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
19-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/2018.htm#20181226

Stephanie E. CurcuruMichiel De Pooter, and George Eckerd | In this paper we estimate the magnitude of spillovers between bond markets in the U.S. and Germany following monetary policy communications by....
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   FEDS 2018-028: Optimal Public Debt with Life Cycle Motives
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
20-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018028

William B. Peterman and Erick Sager | Public debt can be optimal in standard incomplete market models with infinitely lived agents, since the associated capital crowd-out induces a higher interest rate. The higher interest rate encourages individuals to ....
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   IFDP 2018-1225: Structural Change and Global Trade
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
10-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/2018.htm#20181225

Logan T. Lewis, Ryan Monarch, Michael Sposi, and Jing Zhang | Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 50 percent of world expenditure in 1970 to 80 percent in 2015. Such structural change restrained "openn....
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   FEDS 2018-023: New Perspectives on the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
13-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018023

Teresa C. Fort, Justin R. Pierce, and Peter K. Schott | We use relatively unexplored dimensions of US microdata to examine how US manufacturing employment has evolved across industries, firms, establishments, and regions from 1977 to 2012. We show that thes....
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   FEDS 2018-024: How much has wealth concentration grown in the United States? A re-examination of data from 2001-2013
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
13-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018024

Jesse Bricker, Alice Henriques, and Peter Hansen | Well known research based on capitalized income tax data shows robust growth in wealth concentration in the late 2000s. We show that these robust growth estimates ....
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   FEDS 2018-025: A Day Late and a Dollar Short: Liquidity and Household Formation among Student Borrowers
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
13-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018025

Sarena Goodman, Adam Isen, and Constantine Yannelis | The federal government encourages human capital investment through lending and grant programs, but resources from these programs may also finance non-education activities for students whose liquidity is....
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   The Global Macrofinancial Model
IMF Publications - Working Papers
9-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45790

This paper documents the theoretical structure and empirical properties of the latest version of the Global Macrofinancial Model (GFM). This dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies, was developed to support multilaterally consist....
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   Decoupling of Emissions and GDP: Evidence from Aggregate and Provincial Chinese Data
IMF Publications - Working Papers
11-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45776

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GDP in China using both aggregate and provincial data. The Kuznets elasticity is about 0.6 for China, higher than that in advanced countries but below that of major emerging markets. The elasticity is ....
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   Economic Benefits of Export Diversification in Small States
IMF Publications - Working Papers
11-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45795

The paper considers concepts of economic diversification with respect to exports (including service sectors) for small states. We assessed the economic performance of different groups of 34 small states over the period of 1990-2015 and found those more diversified experienced lower output volatility....
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   Thou Shalt Not Breach: The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules
IMF Publications - Working Papers
13-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45800

There is evidence that fiscal rules, in particular well-designed rules, are associated with lower sovereign spreads. However, the impact of noncompliance with fiscal rules on spreads has not been examined in the literature. This paper estimates the effect of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) on ....
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   FEDS 2018-022: Collateral Runs
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
4-Apr-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018022

Sebastian Infante and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis | This paper models an unexplored source of liquidity risk faced by large broker-dealers: collateral runs. By setting different contracting terms on....
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   Understanding the Macro-Financial Effects of Household Debt: A Global Perspective
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45744

We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) for a wider set of countries over the period 1950–2016. Three mutually reinforcing mechanisms help explain this relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consump....
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   Policy Conflicts and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credit Markets
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45745

This paper shows that stabilizing volatility in credit growth often conflicts with price stability: unusual credit expansions often occur when inflation is low relative to goals, and credit slumps often appear when inflation is overshooting. We find that central banks with inflation targeting (IT) a....
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   A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45746

This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain d....
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   Finland’s Public Sector Balance Sheet : A Novel Approach to Analysis of Public Finance
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45747

We construct a comprehensive public sector balance sheet for Finland from 2000 to 2016 by complementing general government statistics with data on public corporations and public pensions. We show that exposure to valuation changes in equity markets through asset holdings and increases in pension lia....
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   The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45748

With the rapid growth of countries' foreign asset and liability positions over the last two decades, financial returns on those positions ('NFA returns') have become material drivers of current accounts and net stock positions. This paper documents the relative importance of NFA return versus trade ....
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   When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45757

Should policymakers wait for fiscal crisis early warning signals before repairing the roof? We give an answer to this question by investigating the interlinkages between early warning signals for fiscal crisis, policy responses, and policy outcomes, using a broad panel of 119 countries. We find that....
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   Globalization and the New Normal
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45780

This study expands the empirical specification of Cerra and Saxena (2008), and allows short-term output growth regimes to be determined by globalization. Relying on a non-linear dynamic panel representation, it reconciles the earlier results in the literature regarding the two opposite narratives of....
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   On the Impact of Structural Reforms on Output and Employment : Evidence from a Cross-country Firm-level Analysis
IMF Publications - Working Papers
6-Apr-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45786

This paper analyzes the effects of selected structural reforms on output and employment in the short and medium term. It uses a comprehensive cross-country firm-level dataset covering both advanced and emerging market economies over the period 2003-2014. In line with previous studies, it finds that ....
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   IFDP 2018-1224: Searching for Yield Abroad: Risk-Taking Through Foreign Investment in U.S. Bonds
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
28-Mar-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/2018.htm#20181224

John Ammer, Stijn Claessens, Alexandra Tabova, and Caleb Wroblewski | The risk-taking effects of low interest rates, now prevailing in many advanced countries, "search-for-yield," can be hard to analyze due to both a....
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   FEDS 2018-021: Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk management
Federal Reserve - Working Paper
23-Mar-2018
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/2018.htm#2018021

Michael B. Gordy and Alexander J. McNeil | We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic is a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modeled probability level. The choice of the ker....
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   Structural Reforms and Labor Reallocation: A Cross-Country Analysis
IMF Publications - Working Papers
19-Mar-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45717

Institutional and market frictions impose costs on the reallocation of labor from low to high productivity sectors, leading to suboptimal allocations and a loss in aggregate labor productivity. Using cross-country sector-level data, we use a dynamic panel error correction model to compute the speed ....
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   Structural Reforms and Firms’ Productivity: Evidence from Developing Countries
IMF Publications - Working Papers
19-Mar-2018
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45718

This paper assesses the effects of structural reforms on firm-level productivity for 37 developing countries from 2006 to 2014 period. It takes advantage of the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset for reform indexes and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for firm-level productivity. The paper....
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Found 127435 resources         Showing items 1 to 25 :   Page [1] 2 3 4 .... 5098 -
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