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Academic Article

   Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violent Behavior
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press
November 30, 2010
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v126y2011i1p103-143.html

We study the link between family violence and the emotional cues associated with wins and losses by professional football teams. We hypothesize that the risk of violence is affected by the "gain-loss" utility of game outcomes around a rationally expected reference point. Our empirical analysis uses ....
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   Outside and Inside Liquidity
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press
November 30, 2010
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v126y2011i1p259-321.html

We propose an origination-and-contingent-distribution model of banking, in which liquidity demand by short-term investors (banks) can be met with cash reserves (inside liquidity) or sales of assets (outside liquidity) to long-term investors (hedge funds and pension funds). Outside liquidity is a mor....
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   Financial Contracting Under Imperfect Enforcement
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press
November 30, 2010
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v126y2011i1p323-371.html

We develop a model of financial contracting under imperfect enforcement. Financial contracts are designed to keep entrepreneurs from diverting project returns, but enforcement is probabilistic and penalties are limited. The model rationalizes the prevalence of straight debt and common stock, and its....
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   Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes<xref ref-type="fn" rid="fn32"></xref>
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press
November 30, 2010
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v126y2011i1p51-102.html

For U.S. annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4--0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6--0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is "permanent" (gauged by Ramey's defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1--0.2. Since a....
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   Fear of Fire Sales, Illiquidity Seeking, and Credit Freezes
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press
November 30, 2010
https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v126y2011i2p557-591.html

Is there any need to clean up a banking system by closing some banks and forcing others to sell assets if the risk of a crisis becomes high? Impaired banks that may be forced to sell illiquid assets in the future have private incentives to hold, rather than sell, those assets Anticipating a potentia....
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Blog & Opinion

   More data can make college less risky
Brookings - Economics Program
January 21, 2016
http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/133930609/0/brookingsrss/programs/economics~More-data-can-make-college-less-risky

A commuter walks on the sidewalk in New York.

There are lots of good reasons to go to college, but the vast majority of....
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   Hutchins Roundup: Macroprudential policies, bonus depreciation, and more
Brookings - Economics Program
January 21, 2016
http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/133972657/0/brookingsrss/programs/economics~Hutchins-Roundup-Macroprudential-policies-bonus-depreciation-and-more

The Hutchins Roundup

Studies in this week’s Hutchins Roundup find that macroprudential policies that target the cost of bank capital are the most eff....
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   Are conservatives serious about fighting poverty?
Brookings - Economics Program
January 20, 2016
http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/133827911/0/brookingsrss/programs/economics~Are-conservatives-serious-about-fighting-poverty

Inner city family (REUTERS)

There are several signs that Republicans are increasing their focus on reducing poverty and increasing opportunity as an item on t....
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   The promise of integrated data systems for social policy reform: A Q&A with Dennis Culhane and John Fantuzzo, principal investigators, Actionable Intelligence for Social Policy
Brookings - Economics Program
January 19, 2016
http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/133680695/0/brookingsrss/programs/economics~The-promise-of-integrated-data-systems-for-social-policy-reform-A-QA-with-Dennis-Culhane-and-John-Fantuzzo-principal-investigators-Actionable-Intelligence-for

datacenter001

Actionable Intelligence for Social Policy (AISP) is an initiative funded by the John D. ....
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   The District’s proposed law shows the wrong way to provide paid leave
Brookings - Economics Program
January 19, 2016
http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~/133685693/0/brookingsrss/programs/economics~The-District%e2%80%99s-proposed-law-shows-the-wrong-way-to-provide-paid-leave

REUTERS/Charles Platiau - Entrepreneurs work at their computer laptops

The issue of paid leave is heating up in 2016. At least....
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Data

   World Economic Outlook, October 2015 : Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices
IMF Publications - World Economic Outlook
October 6, 2015
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43229

This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, in....
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   World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth
IMF Publications - World Economic Outlook
April 14, 2015
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42382

Global growth remains moderate and uneven, and a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country- or region-specific factors. The April 2015 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including lower oil pr....
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   World Economic Outlook, October 2014 : Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties
IMF Publications - World Economic Outlook
October 7, 2014
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41632

The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also....
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   World Economic Outlook, April 2014
IMF Publications - World Economic Outlook
April 8, 2014
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41120

Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further in 2014–15, according to the April 2014 WEO, with much of the impetus for growth coming from advanced economies. Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced econo....
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   World Economic Outlook, October 2013
IMF Publications - World Economic Outlook
October 8, 2013
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40432

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of ....
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Multimedia

   Labour supply responses of lottery winners
VoxEU - Vox Talks
January 23, 2016
http://www.voxeu.org/article/labour-supply-responses-lottery-winners

Cash welfare programmes are widely thought to discourage work because unearned income reduces the labour supply even when it does not alter work incentives. This column discusses recent evidence from Swedish lottery players suggesting that this ‘income effect’ is economically significant, but mo....
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   Firm reorganisation and firm productivity
VoxEU - Vox Talks
January 22, 2016
http://www.voxeu.org/article/firm-reorganisation-and-firm-productivity

Reorganisation doesn’t always create a more efficient and effective firm. This column assesses the extent to which a firm’s physical productivity varies as a result of reorganisation. The results suggest significant variation. For policymakers, studying and understanding the internal organisatio....
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   Discounting climate change investments
VoxEU - Vox Talks
January 22, 2016
http://www.voxeu.org/article/discounting-climate-change-investments

While some of the costs of climate change won’t be incurred for centuries, the actions to mitigate them need to be taken today. Over such a long timespan, small changes in discount rates can drastically change the attractiveness of such investments. This column presents estimates of appropriate di....
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   Cables, sharks, and the geography of the foreign exchange market
VoxEU - Vox Talks
January 22, 2016
http://www.voxeu.org/article/cables-sharks-and-geography-foreign-exchange-market

There is ongoing debate about the impact of technological progress on the geography of trade and production. One view is that cheap technology has attenuated the effect of distance, while others argue that location still matters. This column explores the issue in the context of foreign exchange mark....
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   How school children respond to exam pressure
VoxEU - Vox Talks
January 21, 2016
http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-school-children-respond-exam-pressure

Not everyone responds to pressure in the same way. This column suggests that girls and boys respond differently to the pressure of exams, depending on the significance of the exams. Girls perform relatively better when the stakes are low, but boys outperform them when the stakes are very high. This ....
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Project

   Assessing The Impact Of Fiscal Shocks On Output In MENAP Countries
IMF Publications - Technical Notes and Manual
March 23, 2015
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42765

This note is a reference guide to the econometric work on fiscal multipliers for MENAP countries. Spending and tax multipliers are estimated from conventional VAR models and identified using a sign-restrictions approach. Estimates show that fiscal multipliers tend to be small, except for those assoc....
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   Implementing AML/CFT Measures in the Precious Minerals Sector : Preventing Crime While Increasing Revenue
IMF Publications - Technical Notes and Manual
November 7, 2014
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42441

The trade in precious metals and stones has been linked to illicit financial flows, corruption, smuggling, drug trafficking, illicit arms trafficking, and the financing of terrorism. In addition, the extraction of precious minerals and the subsequent trade in these resources, if properly managed, pr....
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   Fiscal Multipliers: Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections
IMF Publications - Technical Notes and Manual
October 2, 2014
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41784

Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fisca....
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   Prevention and Management of Government Arrears
IMF Publications - Technical Notes and Manual
July 9, 2014
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41672

The accumulation of government expenditure arrears is one of the most common problems in public financial management. This technical note defines expenditure arrears and the different types of arrears that arise. The economic impact of chronic expenditure arrears accumulation is highlighted. The not....
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   Revenue Administration : Administering Revenues from Natural Resources - A Short Primer
IMF Publications - Technical Notes and Manual
June 17, 2014
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41604

Many developing countries have significant natural resource endowments, presenting a remarkable opportunity to boost long-term growth. However, this opportunity comes with enormous challenges. To maximize social and economic benefits, strong governance and institutional capacity are essential. Effec....
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Report

   Public Investment and Public-Private Partnerships
IMF Publications - Economic Issues
March 21, 2007
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18456

Over the past three decades, public spending on infrastructure, as a share of GDP, has been on the decline worldwide. Although the link between infrastructure investment and economic growth is not yet fully understood, the quality of infrastructure clearly affects a country's productivity, competiti....
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   Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation
IMF Publications - Policy Discussion Papers
July 23, 2015
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43115

The recent strong, sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar raises questions about possible financial spillover effects for emerging markets and developing countries. This report finds that, unlike past episodes, emerging markets’ vulnerability has improved along a number of dimensions, though so....
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   Islamic Bond Issuance - What Sovereign Debt Managers Need to Know
IMF Publications - Policy Discussion Papers
July 1, 2008
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22171

Policy Discussion Paper No. 08/3....
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   Capital Inflows and Balance of Payments Pressures - Tailoring Policy Responses in Emerging Market Economies
IMF Publications - Policy Discussion Papers
June 1, 2008
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22007

Although capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, they also pose a challenge for the conduct of economic policy. This paper proposes a conceptual taxonomy to guide the design of policy responses in the face of capital flows. We explore how responses to capital surges should b....
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   Should Italy Sell Its Nonfinancial Assets to Reduce the Debt?
IMF Publications - Policy Discussion Papers
May 1, 2008
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=21921

This paper assesses the proposal, publicly debated in recent years in Italy, to reduce public debt by selling public assets, especially nonfinancial tangible assets. The main findings indicate that, although selling public assets has some merit if done to make more productive use of them, practical ....
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